NERC Releases Long-Term Reliability Assessment
Washington, DC — The economic recession, generation of fuel mix, transmission development and cross industry coordination are highlighted as key over the next 10 years, announced the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) in its 2010 Long-Term Reliability Assessment.
NERC's annual 10-year reliability outlook provides an independent view of the reliability of the bulk power system, identifies trends, emerging issues and potential concerns. The electric industry has prepared adequate plans for the 2010-2019 period to provide reliable electric service across North America. However, many issues threaten the implementation of these plans.
"The bulk power industry has prepared adequate plans for 2010-2019," said Mark Lauby, director of NERC's Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis division. "However, like all plans, there are a number of challenges during this time frame."
This report discusses the key issues and risks to bulk power system reliability. Highlights of the 2010 report include:
- The economic recession, which began affecting demand projections in 2009, and continued advancement of demand-side management leads to decreased demand projections and higher overall reserve margins.
- An unprecedented, continuing change in the generation fuel mix is expected during the next 10 years, which includes significant increases in new gas-fired, wind, solar and nuclear generation.
- Vital bulk power transmission development begins to take shape.
- Cross-industry communication and coordination is key to successful planning and operations.
In the 2009 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, NERC identified five key findings that could affect long-term reliability unless actions were taken by the electric industry. Significant progress has been made on the 2009 findings — which included economic recession and demand-side management; renewable resources; natural gas expected to replace coal; acceleration of transmission siting and construction — although continued action still is needed.
"During this time of uncertainty," Lauby said, "industry, policymakers and regulators will need to continue to work together to manage risks to the reliability of the bulk power system during the ongoing transition."
NERC continues to monitor and assess these issues based on industry progress — in the 2010 assessments Reliability Issues section and through special reliability assessments. To view the 2010 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, visit http://www.nerc.com/files/2010%20LTRA.pdf.
SOURCE: NERC